How Wildlife Refuges Help Nature's "Rock, Paper, Scissors" Game

Exploring how protected areas maintain biodiversity in nature's intricate competitive cycles

Ecology Conservation Biodiversity

The Invisible Battle for Survival

Imagine a forest where three animal species are locked in a never-ending game of "rock-paper-scissors." Species A dominates Species B, Species B overpowers Species C, and Species C surprisingly defeats Species A.

This fascinating ecological dynamic, known as cyclic competition, occurs in ecosystems worldwide—from coral reef invertebrates to lizards in California's coastal ranges.

For decades, scientists have observed a puzzling pattern in these systems: the weakest competitor often survives while stronger species face extinction. This counterintuitive outcome, dubbed the "law of the weakest," has captivated ecologists seeking to understand what maintains biodiversity in nature 6 .

Key Insight

Recent research has revealed a potential game-changer in these ecological standoffs: wildlife refuges. These protected areas are proving to be more than just sanctuaries—they're sophisticated tools that can tip the balance toward coexistence in surprising ways.

The Science of Cyclic Competition

Nature's Endless Game

Cyclic competition represents a fundamental departure from the "survival of the fittest" narrative most people know. In these systems, no single species reigns supreme—each has both an advantage and a vulnerability relative to others in the cycle.

This dynamic creates what scientists call a non-hierarchical relationship, similar to the children's game "rock-paper-scissors" where each element can both defeat and be defeated by another.

Cyclic Competition Dynamics
Species A
Species B
Species C

Visualization of three-species cyclic competition

The Mobility Paradox

For years, scientists have recognized that species mobility plays a crucial role in these cyclic systems. Intuitively, one might think that greater mobility would help species survive by allowing them to access more resources. However, research has revealed a more complex reality.

In 2007, groundbreaking studies showed that mobility could both promote and jeopardize biodiversity in rock-paper-scissors systems 7 . At low mobility levels, species tended to form clusters that protected them from competitors. At moderate mobility, these clusters broke down, making the system vulnerable to collapse. This created what scientists called "critical mobility"—a threshold beyond which coexistence becomes impossible.

This paradox presented a significant challenge for conservation biology: how to maintain biodiversity in systems where movement—an essential ecological process—could trigger irreversible decline.

Wildlife Refuges: A Lifeline for Coexistence

The Refuge Experiment

In 2022, researchers tackled this challenge by investigating how designated wildlife refuges might alter the fate of species in cyclic competition. Using Monte Carlo simulations—computational techniques that model complex systems through random sampling—scientists created spatially extended ecosystems with specific zones designated as protected areas 1 .

The experimental setup mimicked real-world ecological conditions:

  • Multiple mobile species engaged in cyclic competition
  • A portion of the landscape designated as permanent refuge territory
  • Variations in competition rates and mobility levels
  • Detailed tracking of population dynamics over time
Simulation Visualization
Refuge Area Species A Species B Species C

Conceptual representation of a simulated landscape with refuge area

Surprising Results

The findings challenged conventional thinking about conservation tools. Rather than serving as a complete solution, refuges played a more nuanced—yet crucial—role:

"The refuge can play not groundbreaking but an important role in species survival" 1 .

Specifically, the research revealed that wildlife refuges could postpone extinction events and maintain species coexistence at moderate mobility regimes that traditionally led to system collapse. The effectiveness depended more on competition rates than the portion of territory designated as refuge 1 .

Condition Without Refuge With Refuge
Low Mobility Stable coexistence Enhanced stability
Moderate Mobility System collapse Coexistence maintained
High Mobility System collapse Delayed collapse
Population Patterns Clustered distributions More balanced distributions

Inside the Ecologist's Toolkit

Understanding cyclic competition requires sophisticated research methods. Modern ecologists employ an array of technological tools to unravel these complex interactions:

Camera Traps

Primary Function: Remote wildlife monitoring

Application: Tracking species movements and interactions without disturbance

Bioacoustic Systems

Primary Function: Recording animal sounds

Application: Monitoring presence and behavior of vocal species

Unpiloted Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)

Primary Function: Aerial surveying

Application: Mapping habitat use and population distributions

Genetic Monitoring

Primary Function: DNA analysis from scat, hair, or saliva

Application: Identifying individual animals and tracking gene flow

Research Focus

These innovations are particularly valuable for studying smaller, less charismatic species like shrews and rodents, which have historically been neglected in research despite their ecological importance 2 .

Beyond the Three-Species System

As research progresses, scientists are discovering that cyclic competition extends far beyond simple three-species models.

Four-Species Systems and "Fractured Alliances"

In 2025, research revealed that four-species cyclic systems behave dramatically differently from their three-species counterparts. When internal competition occurs within one alliance, it creates an embedded rock-paper-scissors community that can become dynamically unstable .

These "fractured alliances" lead to what mathematicians call "attracting heteroclinic cycles"—complex pathways that populations follow as they compete. Even vanishingly small disturbances in these systems can lead to dramatically different outcomes, highlighting the fragility of multi-species ecosystems .

The Role of Intraspecific Competition

Recent investigations have revealed that competition within species (intraspecific competition) significantly influences coexistence. Strong intraspecific competition actually promotes biodiversity by preventing any single species from dominating the ecosystem 7 .

This finding helps explain why some ecosystems maintain diversity even when theoretical models predict collapse. It also suggests that conservation strategies should consider both between-species and within-species interactions.

Factor Effect on Coexistence Practical Conservation Implication
Mobility Level Either promotes or jeopardizes coexistence depending on intensity Wildlife corridors must be carefully sized
Spatial Scale Larger areas generally support more stable coexistence Protected areas need minimum size thresholds
Intraspecific Competition Generally enhances coexistence Maintaining natural population controls is beneficial
Competition Asymmetry Alters stability conditions Species-specific management may be necessary
Habitat Heterogeneity Provides natural refuges Diverse habitats support more stable ecosystems

The Bigger Picture: Why Coexistence Matters

The study of cyclic competition and wildlife refuges extends far beyond theoretical ecology. As a WWF-led study highlighted in 2025, wildlife provides vital benefits to people's everyday lives that are often overlooked in policy discussions 4 .

Invisible Benefits of Wildlife

  • Regulation of prey populations

    Predators help maintain balanced ecosystems by controlling herbivore numbers

  • Pollination services

    Bats, birds, and insects pollinate plants essential for food production

  • Seed dispersal

    Animals help maintain forest health by spreading seeds

  • Disease control

    Balanced ecosystems naturally regulate disease vectors

  • Cultural and spiritual values

    Wildlife holds significant meaning for indigenous communities

Case Study: Sea Otter Decline

The catastrophic decline of North American sea otters in the 19th century illustrates these connections. The fur trade decimated otter populations, causing:

1
Explosion in sea urchin populations
2
Destruction of kelp forests
3
Collapse of fish populations
4
Coastal erosion increased
5
Reduced resources for Indigenous communities

This cascade of effects demonstrates how the loss of a single species can disrupt entire ecosystems 4 .

A Path Forward for Conservation

The research on wildlife refuges in cyclic competition systems points toward more sophisticated conservation approaches.

Key Conservation Strategies

  • Strategic placement

    Position protected areas to maximize ecological benefits

  • Landscape connectivity

    Consider mobility thresholds in corridor design

  • Inclusive species focus

    Protect both charismatic and lesser-known species

  • Knowledge integration

    Combine traditional ecological knowledge with modern science

  • Advanced monitoring

    Use technology to track ecosystem health

The Urgency of Action

As we face unprecedented biodiversity loss—with monitored vertebrate populations declining by an average of 73% since 1970—these insights offer hope 4 .

73% Decline

By understanding the intricate dances of competition and cooperation in nature, we can develop more effective strategies to safeguard the rich tapestry of life that sustains our planet.

The humble wildlife refuge, once seen as a simple sanctuary, is emerging as a sophisticated tool in this endeavor—helping to maintain nature's delicate balance one protected space at a time.

References